2016/06/03

25位頂級交易大師的”交易忠告”:第6位 Jeremy Grantham

【人的一生,總是難免有浮沉。不會永遠如旭日東昇,也不會永遠痛苦潦倒。反复地一浮一沉,對於一個人來說,正是磨練。因此,浮在上面的,的,不必驕傲;沉在底下的,更用不著悲觀。必須以率直、謙虛的態度,樂觀進取、向前邁進。---松下幸之助 】

「投資界交易經典」電子書-中英文CW 連載↓↓↓ …   (編譯:Smith Pan)

THE  BEST  TRADING  ADVICE  FROM  25 TOP  TRADERS
25位頂級交易大師的交易忠告6  Jeremy Grantham


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Quotations:大師語錄

Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience. It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness and greed. 槓桿降低了投資者的關鍵資產:耐性般的交易續航力。它鼓勵金融好鬥,魯莽和貪婪。
-       JEREMY GRANTHAM傑裡米•格蘭瑟姆
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Jeremy Grantham 傑裡米•格蘭瑟姆 (born on October 6, 1938)
is a British investor and co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham Mayo van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston- based asset management firm. GMO is one of the largest managers of such funds in the world, having more than US $112 billion in assets under management as of September 2013. 傑裡米•格蘭瑟姆(出生於1938106日)是英國投資者,格蘭瑟姆 .梅奧..奧特羅(GMO),基於波士頓的資產管理公司的共同創始人和首席投資策略師。 GMO是世界上此類基金的最大的管理公司之一,於當年20139月期間,曾擁有管理的資產規模超過112個十億美元。

I got wiped out personally in 1968, which was the last really crazy, silly stock market before the Internet era… .After 1968, I became a great reader of history books .  I was shocked and horrified to discover that I had just learned a lesson that was freely available all the way back to the South Sea Bubble . 我在1968年親身體驗被市塲崩跌所吞噬了,這是真的是瘋狂極了,經歷股市泡沫狂跌的互聯網時代......1968年之後,我才深感躬逢其時見証了那段歷史。我感到震驚和驚駭地發現自己汲取了痛苦教訓-那是一段自發般的歷史重演方式,彷彿是回到了南海泡沫事件。(註:南海泡沫事件是英國在1720年春天到秋天之間發生的一次經濟泡沫,它與同年的密西西比泡沫事件及1637年的鬱金香狂熱並稱歐洲早期的三大經濟泡沫。「經濟泡沫」一語即源於南海泡沫事件。) 

All bubbles break; all investment frenzies pass . The market is gloriously inefficient and wanders far from fair price, but eventually, after breaking your heart and your patience it will go back to fair value . Your task is to survive until that happens . 所有的泡沫破裂;所有的投資熱火朝天通過。市場是明顯地沒有效率,市塲價格徘徊震蘯遠離真實的價值,但最終,打破你的心臟和你的耐性後...它會返回到公允價值。直到發生這種情況之前,你的交易任務是在市塲上生存下去,。

The more investments you have and the more different they are, the more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you . 更多的投資行動必須採取與更多數群眾投資風向的相反決策,當你的大賭注的投資標的的走勢與你決策方向相異的時候,在那個關鍵時期,你就越有可能於市塲上生存。

The individual is far better positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing .
我個人的操作風格,是更耐心地等待最佳合適的市塲行情間距來臨時,再進塲投資,在此同時並不考慮別人的投資意見或建議。

It is utterly imperative that you know your limitations as well as your strengths and weaknesses…you must know your pain and patience thresholds accurately and not play over your head .  If you cannot resist temptation, you absolutely must not manage your own money . 這對投資交易完全勢在必行的事,因為你知道你的限制,以及你的長處和短處......而你必須確實知道你的痛苦和耐性的臨界值,確保不在投資領域裡玩過頭。如果你無法抗拒的誘惑,你是絕對不能拿自己的錢去投資。

On the other hand, if you have patience, a decent pain threshold, an ability to withstand herd mentality, perhaps one credit of college-level math and a reputation for common sense, then go for it .  In my opinion, you hold enough cards and will beat most professionals (which is sadly, but realistically, a relatively modest hurdle) and may even do very well indeed .” 在另一方面,如果你有耐心,一個像樣的忍痛閾值(忍受臨界值),也承受得住並了解從眾市塲心理;你也許是具備大學水平常識的數學能力之後,落實投資行動方案。在我看來,你擁有足夠的信用資力,並會擊敗大部分專業投資人士(但是,雖有點悵然,但實際上對投資而言,相對來說是適度的知識障,無礙交易),當然因為這樣素質背景下的投資表現,甚至可以操作出很好的績效。“

to be continued ...待續...

REFERENCES :  marketwatch.com, prudentwealth.com, wikipedia.org, investwithalex.com,
barrons.com
EditEd by brandon Clay布蘭登·克萊

( Chinese translation & Editor中文翻譯&編輯者:Smith Pan )